Perform production forecasting using singular spectrum analysis (SSA)
Usage and Configuration
To perform the calculations run the workflows from this package starting with the workflow Production Forecast (SSA): Reset. The schedules may be adapted to use different contexts.
Follow the steps given in How do I configure packages pulled from Datagration's package repository to change the configuration of the package.
Use the workspace value ProductionForecastPhasesToRun to configure the phases to run the SSA forecast for. Phases not present in this list will be considered secondary phases
Use the workspace value ProductionForecastForecastMonths to define the forecast period
Use the workspace values ProductionForecastMinRateCondensate, ProductionForecastMinRateGas, ProductionForecastMinRateOil, and ProductionForecastMinRateWater to define the rates that terminate a forecast. These settings act as an economic limit on the forecasts. If the forecasted production rate reaches this value the forecast will be terminated
The workspace value ProductionForecastOfflineTime defines the maximum number of days an entity is allowed to be offline but still receive a forecast
The workspace value ProductionForecastRegressionWindow defines the number of data points used in the SSA analysis
The workspace value ProductionForecastTimeIncrement defines the time increment the analysis and forecasting will use
Overview
The Production Forecast (SSA) package performs automated singular spectrum analysis to forecast the production.
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a powerful tool for decomposing the time-series into trend, seasonality and noise components as well as forecasting the future values of the time-series.
Details
Workflows
The package uses the following workflows, in sequence:
Production Forecast (SSA): Reset - Clears forecast related signals for each phase in the workspace. This workflow uses the workspace value ProducedPhasesInWorkspace to enumerate through all phases automatically.
Production Forecast (SSA): Forecast Rates - Calculates forecasts rates for the configured phases using singular spectrum analysis. Also calculates secondary forecast rates.
Production Forecast: Forecast Volumes - calculates forecast volumes from the forecasted rates.
Data Requirements
The following data is required:
production rates (oil, gas, condensate, water)
date of last production
primary phase
time on production