Calculate price forecasts based on hub prices and price fractions while accounting for price offsets, price factors, and inflation
Usage and Configuration
To perform the calculations run the workflows from this package starting with the workflow Economics - Price Forecasts. The schedules may be adapted to use different contexts.
Follow the steps given in How do I configure packages pulled from Datagration's package repository to change the configuration of the package.
Use the workspace values EconomicsEffectiveDate and EconomicsAnalysisMonths to specify the start and the duration of the scope Economics. This scope will be used during the calculations.
Use the workspace value EconomicsHierarchyName to define which hierarchy to use during the calculations. Make sure this hierarchy exists and contains all wells price forecasts shall be calculated for.
Use the workspace value EconomicsParentEntityType to define the entity type of the parents used for copying the price forecasts to well level.
If needed, set a yearly inflation rate using the workspace value YearlyInflationRate.
Preparations
- Save hub price-forecast time signals (hub [oil/gas] price and hub [ngl] price fraction) to all well parent entities in the hierarchy using the data view Economics - Price Forecasts Time. This data view stores the information in the scenario Economics - Price Forecasts Base by default. If you wish to use a flat pricing model, it is sufficient to simply enter the desired hub price or price fraction for the first month of the economics scope. This value will be carried forward automatically.
Ensure that the price forecast starts at the beginning of the economics scope (determined by the effective date).
The sales price for each commodity will be calculated from the hub price as
sales price = (hub price * price factor) + price offset. The price factor and price offset are taken from the values of the signals "gas price factor", "liquid price factor", "gas price offset", "oil price offset" for the parent entities.
- Input all required static signals for parent entities using the data view Economics - Price Forecasts Static. This data view stores the information in the scenario Economics - Price Forecasts Base by default. These are values that will be applied for all wells of that parent in the specified hierarchy.
Any of these signals left blank will be treated as having a value of zero
Details
Workflow Economics - Price Forecasts
The workflow consists of three steps:
DeleteReferenceTableData
This step deletes existing data in the reference table Economics - Price Forecasts. This table is used to store the calculated price forecasts for each processed entity (parent and well) and scenario.
Economics - Price Forecasts (Parent Level)
This P# script calculates the price forecasts on parent level from the input specified in the scenario using the data views (Economics - Price Forecasts Time and Economics - Price Forecasts Static).
Economics - Price Forecasts (Well Level)
This P# script copies the price forecasts from parent to well level using the configured hierarchy and parent entity type. If a well has no parent in the configured hierarchy, it is skipped during the calculations.
Data Requirements
The following data is required on parent level:
butane price offset
condensate price offset
ethane price offset
gas price factor
gas price offset
liquid price factor
oil price offset
pentane+ price offset
propane price offset
sales gas heat value
hub butane price fraction
hub condensate price fraction
hub ethane price fraction
hub gas price
hub oil price
hub pentane+ price fraction
hub propane price fraction